Sober thinking in the AI feast: Henri Lucas sounded the alarm on valuation

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In the market atmosphere of continued carnival of technology stocks, Henri Lucas, a famous value investment expert, released an analysis report that caused a stir in the industry. This 120-page in-depth study pointed out that there is a serious valuation bubble in the current AI concept stocks, and the market value of some companies has deviated from the fundamental support, showing typical “irrational prosperity” characteristics.

The “Tech Stock Health Assessment Model” developed by Lucas’ team shows that the average price-to-sales ratio of major AI companies around the world has reached 4.3 times the historical average, and the capitalization ratio of R&D investment is nearly 50 percentage points higher than the industry standard. What is more worrying is that more than 70% of these companies have not yet established a sustainable business model, and their revenue growth mainly relies on continued transfusions from the capital market. “When investors pay for a future that has not yet been realized, the risks are often seriously underestimated,” Lucas warned in the report.

The study specifically points out three key risk signals: first, the commercialization of technology is slow, with most AI companies’ products still in the laboratory stage; second, the competition for talent has pushed up operating costs, with the salaries of top AI researchers soaring 200% in the past year; and most importantly, the uncertainty of regulatory policies. The AI regulatory framework being formulated by major economies around the world may reshape the entire industry landscape.

Lucas suggested that investors adopt a more prudent allocation strategy: keep AI concept stocks within 5% of the portfolio, give priority to mature companies with clear commercialization paths, and establish strict value assessment standards. After the release of this report, many institutional investors began to re-evaluate their technology stock holdings, showing that the market is responding positively to rational voices. On the balance between innovation and valuation, Lucas once again demonstrated his unique market insight.

 

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